With the Chinese Year of the Dragon starting yesterday, the average spot rates on the Asia-Europe westbound trade lane witnessed an increase for the fifth week in a row.
However, analysts believe the new year trend will not characterise the year as a whole, and merely reflected European importers moving to secure space on vessels before the week-long factory holiday shutdown.
Rates this week are up by just 0.2% compared with last week, reaching US$982.56 per feu, according to analyst Box Trade Intelligence.
BTI said rates were still below those in the five weeks preceding the Chinese New Year in 2011, but “the week-on-week increases seem to be more promising than last year and more similar to 2010 performances”.
BTI said: “Will 2012 realise similar results to those achieved in 2010, in terms of profit, or are the increases in rates due to the European importers’ anxiety to bring cargo out of China before factory closure for the Chinese New Year?
“Our analyses seem to be more inclined to the second explanation: it is more likely, in fact, that the recent positive results observed in the Asia-Europe trade lane will not characterise the year ahead.
“Although demand from Asia to Europe is increasing, with some shippers experiencing difficulties in accommodating boxes on board at the beginning of the year, load factors are estimated to drop in 2012. In turn, this might cause decrease in rates.”
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